Bulletin of V. N. Karazin Kharkiv National University Economic Series

Macroeconomic forecasting of geopolitical changes in the world using machine learning methods

A. Stavytskyy, O. Babkova — Mon, 25 May 2026 00:00:00 +0000

The article explores the possibilities of using machine learning methods for macroeconomic forecasting of geopolitical changes based on panel macroeconomic data. The relevance of the study is due to the increasing level of geopolitical instability in the world economy, the intensification of international conflicts, sanctions restrictions and structural crises, which significantly affect the economic development of countries. In such conditions, the need for the use of modern analytical approaches increases, capable of providing more accurate forecasting of geopolitical risks and identifying complex nonlinear relationships between macroeconomic indicators. The purpose of the study is to develop and implement an approach to forecasting the geopolitical risk index using machine learning methods. The work uses ensemble gradient boosting algorithms XGBoost and LightGBM, which allow for effective work with high-dimensional data and take into account the complex structure of relationships between variables. The MAE, RMSE and MAPE metrics were used to assess the quality of forecasting. The information base of the study was formed in the form of a panel structure "country-year", covering 43 countries for the period 2000-2024 and including 499 macroeconomic indicators that characterize production, consumption, foreign trade, institutional development, demographic and environmental processes. The target variable is the geopolitical risk index. To ensure the correctness of the forecast, the sample was divided into training (2000-2018) and test (2019-2024) periods. The results obtained indicate high forecasting accuracy for both models, the MAPE value does not exceed 1.9%, which confirms the effectiveness of the use of ensemble machine learning algorithms in the tasks of forecasting geopolitical processes. It was established that the used models demonstrate the stability of the results even in the presence of missing values and structural breaks in the time series. Additionally, cluster analysis was applied, which allowed us to identify groups of countries with different levels of geopolitical tension. The study confirmed the feasibility of using machine learning methods to analyze and forecast geopolitical changes. The proposed approach can be used as a decision-making support tool in the field of macroeconomic forecasting and economic policy.

Cybernetic and economic aspects of reducing the risks of cloud storages in the structure of information systems

S. Lubenets , A. Shelestova, O. Pomortseva , V. Hubin — Mon, 25 May 2026 00:00:00 +0000

The article identifies key problematic aspects of the risks associated with the use of cloud data storage by organizations within the structure of their own corporate information systems, combining issues of technical security (cyber aspects), as well as financial feasibility and costs of cyber storage (economic aspects). The most important problematic aspects include: difficulties in designing a secure cloud storage; economic and financial aspects of managing costs of cloud services; insufficient level of proficiency in the necessary skills and / or resources for the proper design, implementation, management and maintenance of a cloud environment. To identify possible areas for mitigating the risks of cloud storage, the basic and extended principles of the "zero trust" concept are studied. Issues of ensuring the integrity and confidentiality of data in cloud storage of information systems are considered. The problem of durability as the ability of a cloud storage system to reliably protect data from loss or damage over a long period of time is studied. The essence of data sovereignty, the importance of the location of cloud storage, and the key role of their performance in minimizing the downtime of a corporate information system and ensuring data fault tolerance and business continuity are determined. The article examines the economic factors that contribute to forecasting cloud resource costs and determining the total cost of ownership for cloud storage. It also highlights the importance of ensuring compatibility between an organization's cloud storage system and previously implemented information security solutions. Key requirements for cloud storage services, resources, and solutions are formulated to mitigate risks and ensure the radical resilience of information system data. Potential areas and prospects for further research on this topic, related to the use of artificial intelligence systems, are identified.

Modeling and optimization of service center inventory management: case study

O. Nikolaeva , V. Zubova , A. Ovcharov — Mon, 25 May 2026 00:00:00 +0000

The paper addresses inventory management in a small electronics service center that combines repairs (B2C) with selling spare parts to other workshops and end customers (B2B/B2C). In this hybrid model, inventory is both an input to service delivery and a product for sale, so a priority conflict arises: sales may reduce availability of parts for urgent repairs. The purpose is to propose an integrated inventory management system that links SKU segmentation (ABC/XYZ), replenishment parameter settings (EOQ/ROP/safety stock), and data requirements for channel‑separated demand accounting. The methodology combines inventory theory and operations research: an “as‑is” review of warehouse processes and replenishment routines, KPI calculation (repair time, stockout frequency, turnover, dead‑stock share), combined ABC/XYZ analysis to select differentiated control policies, and illustrative calculations of EOQ, reorder point (ROP) and safety stock under lead‑time uncertainty. The empirical illustration is based on inventory information from the «ProxyS» service center. The diagnostics shows that current replenishment is reactive and relies on intuitive minimum‑stock thresholds without systematic consideration of demand, SKU value and lead time. A key information issue is identified: inventory withdrawals are not tagged by consumption channel, so repair demand and sales demand are aggregated, which triggers cross‑channel cannibalization and repair delays due to waiting for parts. ABC/XYZ segmentation supports a differentiated policy set: continuous review and ROP/safety stock for high‑value A‑class items, simpler periodic review for B‑class items, and minimalistic rules and limits for C‑class items. Integrating ABC/XYZ with EOQ/ROP/safety stock and data‑governance rules provides a practical pathway from ad‑hoc to controlled inventory management. A critical prerequisite is channel‑separated consumption accounting (repairs vs. sales) and recording a minimal set of attributes at issue time (reason, customer type, priority, and job/order linkage). The approach is feasible for small service businesses and can be implemented in stages: first data discipline and KPI tracking, then segmentation and a policy map, then replenishment parameter tuning for the most valuable and critical items.

The role of gamification in business process reengineering

V. Melnychuk , M. Larina — Mon, 25 May 2026 00:00:00 +0000

In the contemporary business landscape, process reengineering has emerged as a pivotal strategy for enterprises to adapt to the digital age. Nevertheless, conventional methodologies frequently encounter the issue of diminished staff motivation, a factor that can impede the capacity for transformation. Gamification has been proposed as a solution to this issue by transforming routine tasks into motivating challenges. The integration of game elements into non-game processes has been demonstrated to enhance employee engagement and optimise business processes. In the context of business process reengineering, gamification has been shown to act as both a motivational factor and an element of strategic management. The impact of gamification varies depending on the form of ownership and the level of digitalisation of the enterprise, thereby confirming the relevance of a thorough analysis of the role of gamification in business process reengineering for the development of effective models of cooperative management and assessment of their impact on organisational effectiveness. The purpose of the study is to analyse the impact of gamification on business process reengineering and to justify the conditions and criteria for the effective application of the method in enterprises with different forms of ownership. The primary hypothesis is to ascertain the significance of the trend of incorporating gamified approaches into the corporate governance system for the digital transformation of enterprises, as well as to verify the varying effectiveness of gamification in enterprises with different forms of ownership. The scientific article elucidates the concept of gamification, its fundamental elements and tools adapted for the optimisation of business processes in contemporary Ukrainian enterprises. The evolution of traditional management methods in the banking sector of Ukraine is considered. It has been determined that state institutions prioritize bureaucratic regulations and compliance, while private enterprises are commencing the partial integration of digitalisation and gamification, albeit with limited implementation. According to data from the State Statistics Service of Ukraine for 2023-2024, this has resulted in a staff turnover of 15-20% in the public sector. Moreover, the article provides information on the impact of gamification on the reengineering of business processes in the financial and economic systems of enterprises. The topology of gamification tools that can contribute to the construction of a rational and optimal corporate governance system is considered. The present study analyses the effectiveness of motivational elements in strategic planning. Information pertaining to the role of gamification in reengineering, in addition to its tools and the impact on staff engagement, is of significance in the realm of enterprise management. This is due to the fact that it has the capacity to reveal potential for business process optimisation, to reduce resistance to enterprise transformation, to stimulate innovation, and to identify risks in corporate ethics and culture. The hypothesis that gamification is more effective in private enterprises than state-owned ones has been confirmed by an analysis of statistical data.

Strategic cost analysis as a tool for improving the efficiency of an enterprise business model

R. Mahiiovych — Mon, 25 May 2026 00:00:00 +0000

The article substantiates that strategic cost analysis is becoming an integrative tool for improving the efficiency of an enterprise's business model in conditions of instability, growing resource constraints, technological changes, and increased risks. It is determined that the traditional logic of “accounting–control–reduction” does not provide a sustainable effect without aligning costs with the value creation mechanism, process building system, and monetization model. An approach is substantiated whereby cost management is considered a strategic competence that should be integrated into the analysis of the business model at the level of core activities, resources, partner networks, and customer interaction channels. A methodological understanding of strategic cost analysis is proposed, which combines identification of strategic cost drivers; cost behavior analysis; process-oriented cost grouping (based on management accounting and digital information systems); comparative scenario assessment (cost implications of decisions, technology changes, logistics circuits, product portfolio). Based on open statistical data, it is shown that the dominance of intermediate consumption in the structure of output use forms an objective business demand for strategic cost optimization tools, rather than just short-term savings. Practical directions for the application of target cost calculation and kaizen costing, digital control panels, and the “business model blocks – cost factors – instruments of influence” matrix are substantiated. The scientific novelty lies in the substantiation and formalization of the logic of the transition from cost analysis by items to cost analysis as a strategic resource of the business model and in the formulation of a proposal for an integrated decision-making algorithm to improve its efficiency through the management of the main cost factors of the enterprise.

Evaluation of the resource potential of IT-sector companies in Ukraine

K. Horbach — Mon, 25 May 2026 00:00:00 +0000

The article is devoted to a comprehensive assessment of the resource potential of IT companies in Ukraine in the context of economic instability, digital transformation and the impact of military action. The aim of the study is to identify key trends in the development of the resource base of IT companies and to analyse the interrelationships between financial, technical, human and information resources. It is noted that the resource potential of an IT company can be defined as a combination of human, technological, intellectual, financial, and information resources aimed at product development, process optimisation, and entry into new markets. It is determined that the IT market in Ukraine is stable, but reacts significantly to military risks, and its further development will depend on the stabilisation of the security situation, the preservation of exports and the ability of companies to adapt to new conditions. Based on statistical data for 2021–2024, an analysis of the dynamics of revenue, profit, assets, capital, liabilities, labour productivity and profitability indicators was carried out. Correlation analysis was applied, revealing strong positive links between assets, capital, headcount and other strategic indicators, which indicates the industry's ability to gradually recover. At the same time, negative correlations were found between employee productivity, revenue, and technical characteristics, reflecting a staffing crisis and a decline in operational efficiency. The study indicates that the development of the industry was mainly determined by the expansion of the resource base, while the efficiency of resource use declined under the influence of external shocks. Based on the analysis of the literature, a strategic model for strengthening resource potential has been developed, which provides for state support, personnel stabilisation, the introduction of innovative technologies and the development of international partnerships. The proposed approach allows for the formation of a comprehensive resource management system aimed at increasing the sustainability, competitiveness, and ability of IT companies to adapt to wartime conditions and global market changes.

Advertising campaign in the electric vehicle market: tools for improving efficiency

Y. Andrusyk , L. Guryanova — Mon, 25 May 2026 00:00:00 +0000

The article investigates the current state and transformation trends of marketing strategies in the electric vehicle (EV) market, characterized by unprecedented growth dynamics (projected at 135 million units by 2030) and fundamental shifts in consumer behavior. Specific economic characteristics of the EV market are analyzed, particularly the consistently high Customer Acquisition Cost (CAC) and the long decision-making cycle (Sales Cycle), which averages 241 days. It is proven that traditional communication strategies and intuitive media planning are becoming ineffective in a saturated information environment. The necessity of transitioning from heuristic management methods to formalized quantitative models based on Data Science is substantiated. The paper provides a detailed classification of advanced instrumental approaches for each stage of the marketing funnel. Specifically, the integration of the Theory of Planned Behavior (TPB) and the VIP model is considered to identify critical predictors of purchase intention. The advantages of Agent-Based Modeling (ABM) for analyzing social interactions and geospatial targeting are highlighted. Particular attention is paid to behavioral clustering methods (Spectral Clustering, K-means) and the use of hybrid neural networks (CNN+LSTM), such as the EVs-PredNet model, which ensures demand forecasting accuracy at a level of 94.67%. It is demonstrated that for High-Involvement products, standard metrics like CTR or CPA optimization lead to strategic errors and the "lower funnel death spiral". The author proposes and substantiates the "Smart Integration" concept, which involves using Explainable AI (XAI) to overcome the "black box" problem, implementing Integration Quality (INQ) metrics, and assessing Incrementality instead of simplified attribution models. Practical recommendations are formulated regarding the use of Customer Data Platforms (CDP) and Walk-in Attribution technologies to synchronize the digital footprint with physical visits to dealerships. Implementing the proposed approaches allows for the formation of an adaptive and cost-effective advertising campaign amidst high market uncertainty.

CBDC-implementation – the true price

S. Zadvornykh — Mon, 25 May 2026 00:00:00 +0000

The manuscript examines the economic, institutional, and societal implications of implementing central bank digital currencies (CBDCs), with a particular focus on the European context. The study critically analyses the motivations behind the introduction of national digital currencies and evaluates whether CBDCs are capable of solving existing problems in payment systems, financial inclusion, and monetary sovereignty. Special attention is paid to the true price of CBDC implementation, which is interpreted not only as direct financial costs but also as indirect economic, social, and political consequences. Using a mixed-method research approach that combines a systematic literature review, comparative analysis of international pilot projects, and assessment of empirical data from central banks and international financial institutions, the paper identifies key risks associated with CBDCs. These include threats to financial stability, increased cyber and operational risks, loss of transaction anonymity, potential erosion of the traditional banking sector, and negative spillovers for innovation ecosystems and labour markets. The study also highlights the specific challenges of implementing CBDCs in a multi-country monetary union, where differences in economic structures, regulatory frameworks, and user behaviour may amplify systemic risks. The findings suggest that, under current technological and regulatory conditions, CBDCs do not offer clear advantages over existing or alternative digital payment solutions, such as private-sector FinTech innovations or stablecoin-based instruments. The manuscript concludes that a premature or forced transition to CBDCs may generate more costs than benefits and recommends a cautious, phased approach that preserves cash circulation, supports private innovation, and prioritises cybersecurity, financial literacy, and human-centric policy design.

Monetization of algorithmic media in the context of behavioral economics

S. Morozov — Mon, 25 May 2026 00:00:00 +0000

The analysis of video content production from the perspective of profit generation raises the issue of algorithmic media that rely on the attention economy. At its core lies the management of human behavior through algorithms for profit. By considering the concept of "attention" as a category of audience interaction with media, the parameters of attention control are demonstrated. A hypothesis is substantiated, according to which the limited rationality of modern humans has delegated its choice to algorithms. Physiological and cognitive barriers have become a media resource that, through codes, transforms human choice into the monetization of its own business. The theoretical analysis of the study is built on the model of H. Simon and D. Broadbent, demonstrating the principle of filtering information flows within a system with limited bandwidth. This also proves the limited mechanics of human decision-making under the pressure of a large amount of information. The practical component of the study consists of analyzing modern literature on algorithmic media and creating a classification of monetization parameters. It is emphasized that the modern business model of the media industry does not operate on a linear principle of monetization, where classical audience distribution guaranteed advertising investments. The work examines platforms such as YouTube, Meta, Douyin, TikTok, Pinterest, and Netflix, which develop according to the principle of attention distribution and exercise control over the automated behavior of their audiences. Four strategies for controlling the behavior of media product consumers are identified: the quantitative-temporal dimension, engagement, digital content tags, and the algorithmic logic of the illusion of choice. It is concluded that passive content consumption and critical perception of information are being replaced by managed automated pressure, where the viewer's attention becomes a convertible currency that ensures monetization.

Features of managing complex technological systems in the nuclear energy sector in the context of national economic development

H. Hrinchenko — Mon, 25 May 2026 00:00:00 +0000

The article examines the features of managing complex technological systems in nuclear power engineering under the conditions of national economic development. It is substantiated that nuclear power plants are multi-level socio-technical systems whose performance depends on the combined influence of economic, technical-technological, safety, and socio-organizational factors. The paper analyzes existing approaches to assessing the effectiveness of energy system management and identifies their limitations, particularly fragmentation and insufficient consideration of interdependencies between indicators. An integrated approach to evaluating management efficiency is proposed, based on the application of qualimetric assessment and the formation of an integral indicator. The method for assessing management efficiency is improved by incorporating four groups of factors: economic, technical-technological, safety, and socio-organizational. A management model for complex technological systems in nuclear energy is developed, taking into account the synergistic effect of factor interaction and incorporating feedback mechanisms. The proposed approach is tested through the calculation of an integral management efficiency indicator, which confirms its practical applicability and usefulness for decision-making support. The results obtained can be applied to improve management systems of energy enterprises and ensure the effective development of nuclear energy in the context of national economic transformation.

Modern approaches to generation Z motivation in the context of the digital economy: a corporate culture perspective

I. Shteimiller , R. Nesterenko , M. Nastych — Mon, 25 May 2026 00:00:00 +0000

The article examines modern approaches to motivating Generation Z in the digital economy through the prism of corporate culture. The relevance of the topic is due to the rapid digitalization of economic processes, the transformation of the labor market, and the active entry of Generation Z representatives into the professional environment. Modern companies are faced with the need to adapt traditional motivation systems to the values and expectations of the younger generation of employees, for whom flexibility, a digital environment, opportunities for self-realization, career development, and maintaining a balance between work and personal life are important. The purpose of writing the article is a comprehensive study of modern approaches to motivating Generation Z representatives in the digital economy through the prism of corporate culture and the justification of effective tools for increasing their involvement and labor productivity. It has been established that the digitalization of the economy significantly transforms approaches to personnel management and causes a change in motivational mechanisms, in particular, the growth of the role of intangible incentives. It has been determined that generation Z is characterized by specific value orientations, among which the key ones are the desire for self-realization, flexibility, constant feedback and professional development. It has been proven that corporate culture is a key factor in the formation of employee motivation, providing an environment for the implementation of motivational tools and influencing the level of their involvement and loyalty. It has been established that effective motivation of generation Z is based on a combination of flexible forms of employment, individualized development programs, digital HR tools, continuous learning and a culture of recognition. It has been substantiated that the effectiveness of motivational mechanisms depends on their consistency with the values and principles of the organization's corporate culture. It has been determined that the implementation of modern approaches to motivation contributes to increasing labor productivity, staff involvement and competitiveness of enterprises. Prospects for further research are related to the empirical assessment of the effectiveness of the proposed motivational tools in the activities of enterprises.

Project management and marketing management system in the context of paradigmatic structural-functional features of medical services

O. Lytvynova, Y. Petrashyk — Mon, 25 May 2026 00:00:00 +0000

This article summarizes the arguments and counterarguments within the scientific discussion regarding the structural-functional features of medical services in the project management and marketing management system. The main aim of the research is to paradigmatically demonstrate these structural-functional features to identify and solve problematic issues in the marketing of the healthcare system of Ukraine and to outline how project management tools can be applied to implement these marketing strategies effectively. The systematization of literary sources and approaches to solving the problem of marketing in the medical care system indicated that the authors' emphasis is mainly placed on issues of developing measures to attract patients to the provision of medical services. The relevance of solving this scientific problem lies in the fact that the prevailing goal of medical services marketing is the interests of the patient and only then the interests of the institution. The investigation of the issue of medical services marketing peculiarities in the article is carried out in the following logical sequence: determining the features of medical services as those that lack physical parameters and are therefore unmeasurable, perishable, inseparable from the manufacturer, and lack wholesale implementation. Furthermore, the study explores the necessity of reorienting medical institutions to the concept of value for the patient and establishes that a medical service is primarily a public good rather than a for-profit business. The research also addresses the necessity of combining the medical effect with the service component, as well as the issues of information asymmetry and the regulatory conditionality of medical services. Methodological tools of the conducted research were methods of systems analysis, with the research period covering the last 10 years. The object of the study is the healthcare system of Ukraine, as the resolution of these issues holds potential opportunities for improving the medical care system for the population of Ukraine. The article presents the results of an analytical review which establishes that the problem of structural-functional features of medical services lies in marketing methods that are distinct from all other service-providing structures. The research empirically confirms and theoretically proves the necessity of resolving problematic issues of the marketing of the healthcare system of Ukraine, considering their obvious difference from the marketing of other services. Specifically, the study highlights that the perishability of medical services excludes accumulation and necessitates a patient-oriented approach where quality is judged by remote results. The research further argues that due to intangibility, the patient's choice is made under uncertainty, relying heavily on trust and reputation. Additionally, the inseparability of the service from the provider means the process itself is part of the result, making full standardization impossible. The paper concludes that effective marketing management must address the dual nature of the result—combining clinical efficacy with service quality – and mitigate the high level of information asymmetry between doctor and patient. The results of the conducted research can be useful for the development of strategic planning for the development of the medical care system.