From Malthusian trap to demographic transition: educational and research aspects of a university simulation course

Abstract

This article describes a simulation model developed through a collaborative effort between Master’s students, PhD students, and lecturers within the course “Simulation Modelling of Stability and Evolution of Supraorganismal Biosystems”. Over a series of academic sessions in the R environment, the “Humanity Growth” simulation model was developed, which features a step-by-step increase in systemic complexity. This model belongs to the category "mechanism-sufficiency models" (models that test whether a proposed mechanism is sufficient to reproduce observed dynamics). The baseline architecture consists of an exponential population growth model with several age classes, each characterized by its own birth and death rates. In subsequent stages, the model sequentially integrates: a logistic constraint on carrying capacity (Verhulst parameter); the effect of a time lag in the population's response to resource scarcity (Nicholson parameter); a reduction in environmental capacity resulting from overpopulation crises (Easter Island parameter); the expansion of carrying capacity driven by lifestyle-improving cultural evolution (von Foerster parameter); and, finally, the mechanism of demographic transition (Notestein parameter). The paper discusses the model's structure, simulation results, and alternative algorithmic solutions considered during collaborative development. The authors consider this step-by-step modelling approach successful and offer their experience for its further development and application.